What About Bob?

"Victory is mine!"

Bob Rae shouldn't look as relaxed as he does. There are any number of polls showing his Liberal Party potentially being on the wrong end of a historic ass-kicking in Canada's 41st general election. That normally inspires deep and vicious Fear, if not actual agoraphobia.

Nobody facing that kind of almost sexual humiliation at the polls, just five weeks hence, should be chilling out at a Randy Newman concert. That's especially true on the very first day of the campaign. Most halfway smart Liberals, even in their Toronto fortress, are trying to map out their own personal survival. In places like Quebec, Liberal members are almost certainly plotting out the best way to fake their own deaths.

But as the good and great Dr. Reverend and I saw last night, there Bob was, hanging out in Convocation Hall and anticipating Mr. Newman's spectacular songs with the rest of us. He and his wife had ready smiles on their faces for everyone that greeted them. Sure, he looked a little tired, but he was otherwise carefree. He's been politically active since I was in grade school, so I know when he's worried about something. And he wasn't last night.

On the other hand, Mr. Rae set a record on Friday afternoon, casting a vote to bring down his third Conservative government (after Joe Clark's in 1980 and the provincial Frank Miller regime in 1985), something I'm not aware of anyone else having accomplished. It's a neat little historical nugget and something I guess he can be proud of.

But highly respected columnists like Chantal Hebert are opening this campaign with scenarios of an utter apocalypse for the Grits, suggesting that not only will they fail to form a government, they might lose official Opposition status to the treasonous Bloc Quebecois. For that to happen, the Grits would have to lose nearly half of their existing seats in Parliament. And if anything even close to that occurs, the Liberal Party of Canada is well and truly fucked. There would be absolutely no surviving such an eventuality for them.

The Liberals aren't like the Conservatives, who at least to do a passible job of pretending to believe in something other than being in power. The Grits are nothing more than a very loose coalition that likes winning elections only slightly more than they hate one another. And if they start losing elections to traitors like Gille Ducceppe and jabbering dupes like Stephen Harper, there's really nothing that binds them together. Their more ideological members will find comfy new homes in the Bloc and the NDP, with their more practical members joing the Tories, and once an exodus like that starts, it would probably be impossible to stop.

As much as I truly respect Mme. Hebert, the scenario she paints is directly out of the Book of Revelations, and not at all likely to happen. Polls aside, I think that the next Parliament is going to look a lot like this one. Granted, that depends almost entirely on what the Ontario Liberal Party does. If they abandon Michael Ignatieff and throw all of their resources at keeping Dalton McGuinty in Queen's Park this October, the Tories might very well get their majority and all bets are off. All things being equal, McGuinty might be better off having a Harper majority and Rob Ford to run against.

If the federal Liberals start losing seats in the Greater Toronto Area, they'll be annihilated everywhere else and everybody knows it. If only for that reason, I think that they'll do whatever they have to hold on to what they have here. Besides, the Ontario Progressive Conservative leader, Tim Hudak, is hopeless beyond words and if McGuinty has trouble kicking his ass he should be physically thrown right out of politics.

But just holding on to what he already has isn't going to be enough to save Michael Ignatieff. It's important to remember that he was given the leadership to resurrect the party after the historic Stephane Dion debacle. If he only does as well as Dion (or, possibly worse), I don't see how he makes it through election night without giving his immediate resignation as leader.

Now, if the Liberals were smart, they'd give the leadership to a Quebecker, like Denis Coderre. The Grits have historically done well with French leaders, and Coderre - unlike Dion - is a respected party organizer in the province. The only problem is that nobody knows who he is, so they won't do it.

That leaves Bob Rae, who has been loyal and has waited his turn since returning to politics six years ago. He's formidably smart and one of the few Liberals left that has experience with both winning campaigns and governing, albeit as the NDP premier of Ontario. Unlike Ignatieff, Rae has a lifetime of political experience and, more importantly, he knows a thing or two about disposing of Tory minority governments.

Ignatieff stupidly renounced the prospect of a post-election coalition yesterday, but that won't stop Harper from running against it. But that renunciation wouldn't be binding on Rae if he assumes the leadership. And the Liberals might suddenly develop a healthy interest in Rae's 1985 Liberal-NDP Accord, that took out the Miller Tories and installed David Peterson as premier. If that's the only way the Liberals can return to power, I believe that they'll take it, especially after Iggy is sent off to teach Sunday school in lower Angola.

The Tories, being Tories and not especially smart, relish the idea of running against Rae, and have for years. Harper's people think that Rae's NDP record in Ontario can be used as the instrument that would destroy the Liberals once and for all. They should be awfully careful in what they wish for.

The Harper Tories have an indefensible economic record of their own, and that could lead to a very interesting debate between Rae and Harper (or his probable successor, Jason Kenney.) Rae could just very coldly look at whoever the Conservative leader is and say "Yes, I was a socialist back then and socialism is very expensive. What's your excuse?"

As premier, he also made the ultmate political sacrifice of burning his core political constituency - public sector unions - in an attempt to tame the Ontario deficit with the infamous "Rae Days." If you assume that we're going to get all Wisconsin-stupid on public employees, who do you think is going to have more credibility on that, the Conservatives, or Bob Rae? Are the Tories seriously going to argue that Rae was wrong?

The Conservatives are merrily asserting that we can just grow our way out of our current mess, which is so hardcore stupid that even small children don't believe it. Jim Flaherty can't say how we're gonna do it, but that doesn't stop him saying that we will.

Under Harper, the Tories have burned through over a hundred billion dollars and have nothing to show for it. If the Conservatives want to dredge through twenty year-old provincial budgets, they'd have to figure out a way to defend their own very liberal - and far more recent - spending. They might be able to pull that off with a halfwit with no political skills, like Iggy, but Rae is a much better natural politician.

If that debate is had after the shit hits the fan, I'd much rather be on Bob Rae's side of the stage, if only because it's safer there.

Nobody loves Randy Newman more than I do, but I don't think his wonderful songs were the source of Bob Rae's obvious happiness last night. I think he's looking to the future past May 2 and very much likes what he sees.