'Cause Tramps Like Us, Baby, We Were Born To Writ

"Maybe I can get another teaching job. I hear Angola is lovely in the spring"

Unless a dozen or so Liberal MPs get a sudden case of rickets this afternoon, the Harper Government (which the prime minister insists you call the government of Canada because, hey, it worked for Nicolae Ceaușescu) will be defeated on a confidence motion, precluding a vote on Jim Flaherty's shopaholic budget.

Ordinarily, I'd be thrilled by this. I've wanted to see Harper's "anything-but-conservative" Conservative regime toppled almost since the day it took office.  As my friend Jay recently pointed out, if I wanted a Liberal budget, I would have fucking well voted for the Liberals, wouldn't I?

Actually, that's not fair to the Liberals, who built up shitloads of deficit-cutting credibility during the Chretien-Martin years, so much so that I now regret not having voted for them in the 90s. Chretien and Martin did what no other government has done in my lifetime - and the only thing I demand of the federal government - balance the goddamned books. I get that they only pulled pulled it off by screwing everybody and raiding the Unemployment Insurance fund, but I don't care. At this point, I'll even take the appearance of fiscal discipline. Stephen Harper is clearly unequal to the task and has governed like George W. Bush on a fucking mescaline marathon.

But Micheal Ignatieff, being Michael Ignatieff, is pissing that natural advantage away. Sure, he's pointing out Tory profligacy every chance he gets, but he's also promising shitloads new, unpaid-for, spending. Think the Conservative's babysitter tax credit just isn't enough for you? Well, the Ignatieff Liberals are practically promising to move your kids into his place, which just isn't credible because he lives in an itty-bitty condo.

Oh, and the election that will be forced on us this afternoon comes in the face of truly daunting polling numbers. Even Liberals who are famous for saying that they always want an election are backing away from that as quickly as they humanly can in the face of last night's Ipsos release. 43% approval for Harper in a four party Parliament is an awesomely tough nut to crack and the Tories have never done that well on the eve of a writ before.

As to the fundamentally worthless 1984 analogies, they're premature, at best. So far as I remember, Brian Mulroney didn't start the '84 campaign with a zillion point lead. But Kim Campabell - another sitting prime minister -  did, and she lost a hundred and fifty some odd seats in a month.

Not that it matters. Ignatieff is out of options. He, like Stephane Dion before him, have supported this government at every turn. Ignore Harper's horseshit "coalition" propaganda because there already is one, and there has for over five years now. With the single exception of Layton propping him up, Stephen Harper has governed at the pleasure of the Liberal Party of Canada. The last five years have been like World War I without the troublesome shooting.

The Count of Cambridge is screwed regardless what he does. If he forces an election, he loses badly. If he doesn't, his rivals in the eternal civil war destroy him. One way or another, his reign of error is over.

Unless, of course, he plays the coalition card. If - as I believe will happen - Harper fucks up yet another "sure thing majority," the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois will constitute a majority of House. And no one is as spooked by a coalition as they were in December of 2008.

The only things that stopped a coalition in 2008 was that the country was unprepared for it, it was a response to a bullshit issue (public subsidies for political parties)  and that Ignatieff was a coward. He was the last MP to sign the letter and refused to defeat the 2009 budget with the coalition. Now the idea is out there and I think that the country could live with a coalition.

Frankly, so could I. There isn't a blogger in the world that has better fiscally conservative credentials than I do. And I forcefully reject the notion that a Haper majority would stop burning up money, if only because Harper would very much want to keep that majority. I'm convinced that these assholes would spend a fucking truckload of money to do it. All things being equal, a coalition that doesn't pretend to care about the deficit is still better than one that can only barely be forced to admit that it exists at all, if only because they want to expand it to buy more votes.

I don't care what the polls say. The balance of power - assuming another Harper minority, which I'm virtually certain is coming - rests with the NDP. And I don't see them coronating Michael Ignatieff, who has historically been to the right of Harper himself. The Dippers have also done the hard work of opposition for the last five years, while the Grits just supported the government. It would be insane for the NDP to reward the Ignatieff for that.

There's almost no way that Michael Ignatieff is cleanly elected prime minister. His chances of winning even a minority government are close to zero. And having him installed in 24 Sessex Drive by Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe accomplishes absolutely nothing from their ideological perspective. At this point, the Conservatives shouldn't be able to call themselves conservative anymore. If I were the Bloc or the NDP, I'd think that that another year or two better than Prime Minister Ignatieff, which means that Ignatieff is finshed.

After five years, on any number of fronts, the Conservative Party of Canada has lost the right to govern. There is no conservative alternative to a coalition.