Ford Nation?

I've repeatedly used this space to say that I don't trust the Tea Party because there's ample evidence that they aren't serious about balancing budgets. Their alleged "fiscal discipline" is more ideological than anything else, and that's not going to accomplish very much.

In fact, I think much of the "new right" is dangerous in that they're selling the idea that spending can be cut painlessly, and it can't. Meaningful cuts are going to hurt a lot of people badly and they're almost certainly going to have to be accompanied with some tax increases. Anyone who lived through the draconian cuts of the Chretien era here in Canada should know that.

The platforms of the Tea Party and Toronto mayor Rob Ford are already being discredited by reality. The GOP-Tea Party House caucus in the U.S can't find even $100 million in cuts, despite their pledge to do just that. Ford only barely managed to balance this year's budget, and he did so mostly by using smoke and mirrors that won't be available to him next year. That means that one of his central promises, an end to Toronto's universally loathed land transfer tax, is going to remain unfulfilled.

And that's where the danger lies. If allegedly right-wing politicians and parties can't end deficits - and do so with the minimum level of pain that they promised - the very idea of fiscal responsibility itself will be discredited. Well, it'll be discredited until it's too late, but don't worry. The bond market will fix that and force cuts more painful than anyone currently imagines, particularly in the United States. And nothing will be safe at that point, not the military, not Social Security, and not Medicare.

Instead of putting on tri-corner hats and carrying semi-automatic weapons to mindless rallies, many of my fellow fiscal conservatives would do well to read some history. My American friends would be well served by reading about the cuts of the Chretien years in Canada to fully appreciate what they're advocating and what it means. And for God's sake, do try to only look at the Reagan presidency that actually was in office as opposed to the one that lives in the fevered imaginations of idiots like Michael Reagan and Grover Norquist.

Let's start with the Reagan years. First, the 1981 tax cut wasn't solely - or even primarily - responsible for the economic growth (such as it was) of the 1980s. Breaking inflation once and for all did that. Unfortunately, that happened because the Federal Reserve's discount rate was driven up to 25%, which caused a savage recession with unemployment rates nearing 11%. Like the Iran-Contra scandal, that's something that today's Reaganauts don't talk about very often, which is too bad because it was the bravest thing Ronald Reagan ever did.

After the tax cuts were passed, President Reagan didn't spend a lot of time or political capital on spending cuts. The size of the federal government actually grew under Reagan and defense spending in particular exploded. Even with Reagan closing loopholes in the tax code and creating "revenue enhancements" (which anyone with a passing acquaintance with the English language understands to mean tax increases), the deficit more than doubled between 1981 and '89. Oh, and here's something that I'd like to point out: Everybody's taxes are lower now than they were during the Reagan administration.

Canada spent thirty years spending all of the money we had and quite a bit that we didn't by the time Jean Chretien became prime minister in 1993. When the Liberals were defeated by the Brian Mulroney Progressive Conservatives in 1984, Chretien, himself a former finance minister said "We left the cupboard bare." By '93, not only were we out of money, The Economist was advocating removing Canada from the G7 and bringing Spain in. For every dollar the Canadian government brought in, it spent $1.25.

Mulroney fixed the revenue side of the equation in signing the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and implementing the 7% Goods and Services Tax (GST). FTA rapidly grew the economy and the GST brought in tens of billions in revenue. Because it replaced the 13.5% Manufacturers' Sales Tax, the GST was actually a tax cut (although it was applied to the consumer directly and not hidden), but most people didn't understand that because most people are very stupid.

But even those revenue enhancements weren't enough. The serious work of cutting, which was politically impossible for the Tories, was left to the Chretien Liberals. And it was brutal, far more drastic than anything any American president ever attempted and deeper than any American politician or commentator is currently advocating. Every federal ministry faced cuts - not the cutsey cuts in the rate of growth that most Republicans advocate, but program cuts - of upwards of 25%. It was a deeper and more sustained assault on deficits than I thought was even politically possible. Don't expect any chuckleheaded partisan bloggers to admit it, but Mulroney, Chretien and Paul Martin fundamentally transformed this country from an economic basket case to a real live first world country. Of course, Stephen Harper pissed it all away in less than five years.

There's no shortage of history that details what works and what doesn't. The only problem is that no one seems particularly interested in reading it. So you get the feel-good know-nothingism of the Tea Party and Rob Ford.

And pretty soon Canadians are going to get a whole lot more of it.

Earlier this week, the mayor threatened to unleash “Ford Nation” on Premier Dalton McGuinty should the province refuse the city’s request for more money.

It may have come off as a spur-of-the-moment turn of phrase, but Ford Nation is very real and about to change the political landscape of Ontario.

For months, members of Ford’s former campaign staff have been quietly drawing up plans to form a right-wing advocacy group. The intention is to monetize and organize this huge ideological voting base, essentially forming a quasi Tea Party North.

It would means millions of dollars for the conservative movement, high-profile publicity for Tory-friendly issues and an energized right-wing base.

“But it won’t be called Ford Nation. It’s going to be an advocacy group for the taxpayers of Toronto. It will be something like: Respect for Taxpayers Action Group,” said Nick Kouvalis, the mayor’s former chief of staff and deputy campaign manager.

(...)

Since leaving Ford’s office a month ago, Kouvalis has been heading up the initiative. If everything goes according to schedule, the group could open its doors by the end of the month. The plan is to initially start in Toronto, then expand to other Ontario cities.

Then nationwide.

“What we found during the campaign is there is a lot of frustration out there among taxpayers. And those taxpayers are willing to be politically engaged, donating their time and money to have their voice heard. It’s happening across the States and now here in Canada,” he said.

“I wanted to continue building this movement that would be a voice for taxpayers. Not just for Toronto but for the whole province.”

Great. More flash and bullshit, signifying nothing. That's exactly what we need.

Not only is this Ford nation-Tea Party crap ideological nonsense, it's ideological nonsense with no basis in reality, history or mathematics. The GOP is currently learning that cutting $100 million from a budget with a $1.5 trillion deficit in ways that don't offend anybody is easier said than done. Ford hasn't been in office six months and he's already resorted to accounting tricks to balance his budget without cutting anything popular.

Yes, you can engage politically disgruntled voters with nonsense like that, but you can't do it for very long. Pretty soon, people's natural cynicism takes over and nobody takes you seriously. Within the year you're going to see the Teapublicans tearing each other apart and giving Obama a healthy reelection margin. And I'll be surprised if Ford can make it that long without looking like an utter fool.

Both Ford and the Teapublicans think that you can balance the books by cutting "waste, fraud and abuse" and keeping the spending everybody likes - which is to say most of it - in place. And the math just doesn't support that. Chainsaws are going to have to be taken to budgets, especially in the United States, and that's going to require politicians who are willing to lose elections to do it. Even Paul Ryan's roadmap that has everyone freaking out doesn't balance anything until around 2065.

The worst part is that Mr. Kouvalis is taking a serious issue that most people really don't understand the particulars of and using it as a short-term issue against the McGuinty Liberals. On the other hand, it's going to be hilarious because it isn't going to work.

No one wants to see Dalton McGuinty lose more than I do. The guy pisses away money at a rate that impresses Stephen Harper. Every time I so much as think of McGuinty, I smell sulphur and think I'm having a stroke. But my wanting McGuinty to lose doesn't necessarily mean it's going to happen, especially with Tim Hudak as leader of the opposition.

I predict elections simply by looking at the incumbent (when there is one) and asking myself "Who's going to beat him?" It almost never fails me. And Hudak is not going to beat McGuinty. He just isn't. The guy is politically hopeless, a communications mess and his party is veering awfully close to civil war. And the campaign hasn't even started yet. These things rarely get better as a campaign progresses, they only get worse.

And then there's the prospect of Ford inserting himself into the race.

At Queen’s Park, Liberals are closely watching the rise of the so-called Ford Nation.

There is concern in some Liberal quarters that the province appears to be antagonizing the mayor at a time when he is still basking in a political honeymoon.

“Ford is going from a position of strength,” noted one official, who is hopeful tensions will be defused soon.

Neil Thomlinson, chair of Ryerson University’s politics department, said provincial Liberals have reason to be nervous.

“Anything that organizes people and gives them a feeling of belonging and engagement has the potential to influence political outcomes. And these aren’t any old people, these are energizing people with a particular axe to grind, just like the Tea Party,” he said.

Bullshit.

I haven't even thought about this very hard and I can encapsulate it in a short paragraph. Rob Ford is going to jump into a race where he isn't a candidate and say the following; "I ran on ending the gravy train. Now Dalton McGuinty won't give me $150 million in free money. What the fuck's up with that?"

How well do you think that's going to work out? Well, I'll tell you. It positions McGuinty perfectly as the candidate of fiscal restraint and helps him - and everybody else - ignore his record of spending $22 billion that he didn't have. And that's going to be amplified by Hudak's politically helpless promises to shower money on Hizzoner if he's elected. It's the perfect storm of stupidity.

If you've gotten this far into this post, you must think I'm pretty groovy, especially if you don't live in Ontario. But if you're one my Tea Party associated American friends, or if you just want to see them fail, you should pay extra special attention to the Ontario election this fall. Given the dynamics, it'll be a preview of the presidential election two years from now. If I'm wrong, the GOP has a decent shot at taking out Obama in 2012.

But I'm not wrong. Voters tend to fall for ideological nonsense only when it has a sunny disposition like Reagan's attached to it. If there's one thing that Rob Ford, Tim Hudak or any prominent Republican candidate that isn't Mitch Daniels have in common, it's that none of them are particularly attractive personalities. Dalton McGuinty and Barack Obama may be worse, but they won't be seen as going on the offensive and they definitely won't be seen as revolutionaries.