I never thought that I'd writing a blog primarily focused on local politics, and for years you wouldn't have known where I lived at all. That changed with the rise, spectacular fall and possible resurrection of Mayor Rob Ford.
It's a pretty compelling story, and one I can't easily ignore. Everything about the man perfectly fits into this blog's narrative of what's happening to conservatism. I'm horrified by it and in love with it, all at once.
I'm getting quite the reaction from my musings here, but I understand how it can be a little "inside baseball" if you don't actually live here. As always, I appreciate your continued patience.
Thanks,
skippy
They say that the numbers don't lie, and I generally believe that. I spent the better part of two months pointing out that Republicans were kidding themselves with "skewed polls" in this month's presidential election. Polling, for the most part, is generally right and a useful tool. Were it not, nobody would use it. And political and journalistic types pay obscene amounts of money for polling.
Having said that, I do take issue with hypothetical political polling. Politics is far too fluid a game to reasonably make judgements on hypotheticals. In Toronto's last mayoral campaign, for example, Adam Giambrone was supposed to clear the liberal field early, take on either John Tory or Rob Ford and save the day for David Miller's strange legacy. Then we learned of his love of hot. strange pussy and his campaign folded within days of it beginning. But, for about ten minutes, he was the Golden Child, at least on paper.
We don't know that there's going to be a by-election to fill the judicially created vacancy in the mayor's office. I prefer that there isn't, and every right-leaning member councillor that isn't named Ford seems to agree with me.
As is true with most things, it depends on what the liberal plurality on City Council chooses to do. If Ford isn't granted a stay, they can either force a by-election, which is clearly in their interest, or they can bypass Doug Holyday and create open warfare.
As indicated by this morning's Angus Reid poll, Mayor Ford's numbers are nightmarish. Contrary to everything I've heard since Monday, both here and elsewhere, there is overwhelming support for getting rid of Etobicoke Slim once and for all. Not having poked around the internals of the poll, the numbers look even worse than I ever expected them to be.
In an Angus Reid Public Opinion poll conducted after Ford was kicked out of office on Monday — he is now appealing — 69 per cent of respondents said they supported Justice Charles Hackland’s decision, 49 per cent of them strongly. That’s compared to 27 per cent who opposed the ruling, 16 per cent of them strongly.
Ford may not be permitted to run in a byelection. If he is, he will have to face an electorate that has solidified in its antipathy to him. Fifty-seven per cent of poll respondents said they would “definitely” not vote for Ford in a byelection. Another 11 said they would “probably” not vote for him.
Though Ford is renowned for his “nation” of devotees, the poll suggests that his opponents are now more enthusiastic than his supporters. A mere 16 per cent of respondents said they would definitely vote for him, 11 per cent said they would probably vote for him.
Ford’s favourability rating was also dismal. Only 28 per cent said they had a positive impression of him, 67 per cent a negative impression. NDP MP and potential candidate Olivia Chow’s numbers were nearly the opposite: 60 per cent had a positive impression of her, 24 per cent negative.
(Since this poll was published, Mr. Justice Hackland struck "the current term" language from his ruling, therefore qualifying the Mayor to run in a by-election.)
Ouch.
For two years now, I've been making the case that the supposed "Ford Nation" doesn't exist. His election was based entirely based on a heavily divided field opposing him and his ability to (falsely) portray himself as a conservative.
This poll should divided into two parts: The removal of Ford (along with his personal numbers,) and the hypothetical horserace.
Nearly three-quarters of those polled (69%,) to one degree or another, supports removing him from office. His re-elect numbers are better by a single point.
Here's the dirty little secret of populism: you need to actually be popular for it to work. Absent a strong personality cult, populism - on either the left or the right - is a hodgepodge of nonsensical policies that actually work against one another.
Ford's 2010 campaign was a perfect example of that. He ran on the idea that you could build a $100 billion subway system and pay for it by cutting $75, 000 of gardening at Nathan Philips Square. Not only did he promise during his campaign that he wouldn't cut city services, he said that he might actually increase them.
That was horseshit, and all but the most delusional Sun Media mavens now know it. And Ford's numbers haven't exactly been great for over a year now.
I'm not going to pretend that 69% of the city supports the points of law on Hizzoner's removal, or even knows what the facts of the case even are. I'd guess that half of them have no understanding whatsoever about either. Nor does it matter. Ignorant assholes decide elections all the time.
They just want Robbie gone. And in the big, bad world out there, that's all that matters.
I'll grant you that there is a path to victory for the mayor, but that relies almost entirely on the kindness of his enemies.
Rob Ford begins any hypothetical race with the support of the 20% of people who also believe that supermodels will blow them if they only get to know them. They will buy anything the Ford family has to say. You don't get more rock-solid than that vote. If it was found that the Mayor was butchering prostitutes and burying them in the park he wanted to buy, they'd applaud him for "cleaning up the streets."
These people really do think that taking TTC buses out of service for his dopey football team or demanding to fix the road in front of the family business was perfectly justifiable. That's the personality cult of populism talking. (See also Long, Huey.) Who needs a "gravy train," when you can comandeer a couple of city buses?
If the left acts like the left and runs a half dozen "bitter-ender" candidates, it's at least conceivable that Etobicoke Slim runs up the middle and wins. That's basically what happened the last time. Former provincial health minister George Smitherman was also a less than ideal main opposition candidate, even though he was backed by the brains and the money of the institutional Conservative parties of both Ontario and Canada.
And that, my friends, is where Olivia Chow comes in.
Chow isn't going to run as herself. That'll never work. Instead, she's going to run as the anointed spiritual successor to the recented sainted Jack Layton. I can't imagine her giving a speech where her late husband's name isn't invoked at least a dozen times. If you think that's not going to carry some serious weight, you're kidding yourselves.
That begs the question; how do liberal candidates run against the ghost of Jack while remaining committed to liberal orthodoxy. Olivia also benefits from the fact that liberals hate Ford far more than they hate one another, the exact opposite phenomenon from what have saved Stephen Harper over and over again.
Then there's what Richard Nixon called the "nut-cutting" of politics.
Rob Ford got beaten in the Old City of Toronto and won with concentrated support in the suburbs. But the northern and eastern rings of the city are heavily Asian. Off of the top of m head, there are probably a half-dozen wards that Chow could win with the support of the Chinese community alone, mine included.
In a clean head-to-head race, I can't see how Ford beats Chow. And after 2010, I don't see a bitter ender like Joe Pantalone staying in the race through election day.
So here's the question for conservatives: Do you love Rob Ford more than you fear Olivia Chow?
If she runs, (which is a significant if,) my guess is that she'll probably win on the basis on her name, who her husband was and the demographics of the city.
The only way to plausibly stop her is by "bigfooting" Ford out of the race.
That means John Tory. If you combine Tory's vote with Ford's, you have 44%, which is more than enough to win under almost any scenario. And given how the right feels about Olivia Chow, I can't imagine that they wouldn't vote for Tory.
But given the Angus-Reid numbers, I can see a whole lot of Tory's voters going to Chow, if only to get rid of Ford.
That being the case, I think that if Tory indicated his willingness to run, Ford's money and support would evaporate overnight. I for one wouldn't vote for a Ford, except in a recall. I very much would vote for John Tory, especially if that meant stopping Olivia Chow.
But would I be more comfortable with Chow than Ford? Probably. I wouldn't vote for her, but at least I know that her administration wouldn't be best with personal embarrassment, personal entitlement and constant court appearances.
The fact is that I don't see Olivia Chow being any better than Rob Ford on mt priorities, but I don't see her being any worse, either. The difference is that I can see conservative governance coming back after Chow, and that's a fool's errand with Ford.
Again, I will go absolutely apeshit if a monstrously expensive and essentially meaningless election is forced on the city that puts in a mayor that basically has six months to do nothing at all. Not only will I refuse to support any candidate that does that, I will never vote for them again and agitate against them to the fullest extent of my ability.
But, as of this morning, the Ford brothers should start being awfully careful what they wish for. They just might get it, and I suspect it won't end the way they think it will.
0 comments:
Post a Comment