Wednesday, November 28, 2012

The Ford Follies Redux: So What's Next?

In the days since Mayor Rob Ford was ordered removed from office for having violated the Municipal Conflict of Interest Act, the outrage from conservative quarters has been selective, ironic and more than a little enlightening.

I agree with those that suggest that "the punishment doesn't fit the crime," although they're silly on the facts, the law, and everything they've said about politicians who aren't Rob Ford.

Outright removal does seem rather drastic but those that are morally affronted by this are the very people who usually loathe judicial discretion and want it limited by legislation to the maximum possible extent. Indeed, virtually all of Ford's supporters in this case also support Stephen Harper's criminal justice reforms that impose mandatory minimum sentences. 

Well, once Ford was found in breach of the MCIA, Justice Hackland had no discretion. The Act itself doesn't allow for anything less than removal. The Court showed as much leniency as it could in not disqualifying Hizzoner from running past the expiration of his current term.

The MCIA was passed in 1990 and all three provincial parties have subsequently had majority governments and ample opportunity to amend or rescind it. None did, and that at least implies consensus. Indeed, the MCIA could have been revisited by Queen's Park when the Stronger City of Toronto for a Stronger Ontario Act was passed in 2005, but it wasn't. Mike Harris could have changed it under the 1998 amalgamation, but he didn't.

I also have grave doubts that Ford supporters would have the same level of disgust if a liberal politician found themselves in their guy's position. Mayor Ford's supporters are all about "law and order," except when they aren't.

The outrage is therefore more than a little selective and a lot hypocritical.

As I mentioned after the Court's ruling Monday, I see little prospect for success in Ford's promised appeal. The facts of the case and the law couldn't be clearer. I'm not an attorney, but I see no realistic chance that the verdict will be overturned. For that reason, a stay on removal should not be granted during the process.

I'm also of the qualified opinion that there should be no by-election to replace Ford. By the time such an election is finally held, there will be less than 18 months of the term remaining. It will be a titanic waste of $7 million that Ford himself has spent years saying that the city doesn't have.

My qualification on a by-election is based on what City Council chooses to do. Ideally, Deputy Mayor Doug Holyday - a solid, respected member of Council, a Ford ally and a conservative - will be appointed to replace Ford. If Holyday is named acting mayor, "the will of the people" isn't fundamentally altered and another city-wide is unnecessary. But for the fact that Holyday can actually get along with others and maybe accomplish something without turning the city upside down, nothing fundamentally changes. It also stands to reason that the post of deputy mayor exists only for circumstances such as this.

And if Rob Ford is so beloved, there should be nothing stopping him from winning another term in 2014.

Furthermore, on the outside chance that Ford's appeal is successful, Holyday can step aside with no muss or fuss. That might not be true of a mayor elevated in a by-election. Then you would have two elected mayors. It should also be noted that the consensus of opinion - including the city's own lawyer - is that Justice Hackland has ruled that Ford is disqualified from any by-election.  The removal of an elected executive by the judiciary is bad enough, irrespective of where the fault lies. The resulting turmoil should be minimized as much as possible.

However, if Council chooses to attempt a sort of coup and fundamentally change the governance of the city by naming someone other than Holyday, I would probably very reluctantly support a by-election. From most of the reports I've read, the activist left on Council gets that and won't try it. But they will try to go to the polls.

In yesterday's Toronto Star, Royson James (perhaps unknowingly) makes the case against a by-election.

A city-wide by-election would be an incredibly expensive and unnecessary freak-show. The fact that the Ford brothers both support one undermines their "respect for the taxpayer." If Rob can't run, the thinking goes, his even dumber and more abrasive brother, Doug, can. And the cost be damned, which tells you more about the Ford brothers than any platform ever could. They're "champing at the bits. They are ready to go" to waste enormous amounts of public money on something as meaningless as a family restoration to the throne.

Forget about the Mayor's supposed apology yesterday. Those two feel no shame at all. They want a campaign because they think they can win it.

This, contrary to the insipid Ford party line, isn't about "democracy." The MCIA was passed by the duly elected government of Ontario over 20 years ago. The law, while imperfectly written (and even Justice Hackland acknowledged that in his ruling,) worked exactly as it is was designed to. The law may well be an ass, but that's for Queen's Park to address.

Nor is this a recall effort. If that were the case, I would vote to retain Ford, simply because I dislike recalls more than I do the mayor. Principle means more to me that silly and transitory political figures do. I initially opposed Ford and Rocco Rossi for the sole reason that they proposed or supported the idea of recalls.

Whoever wins a by-election won't have much of a mandate or the time to do very much at all. A Toronto campaign lasts 300 days, meaning that the newly elected mayor would have as little as six months to enact his or her agenda before everything effectively stops for the 2014 election. The incumbent wouldn't have a record to run on, just an institutional advantage in the next campaign.

I'm not naive. I get why the politicians desperately want a by-election. A by-election is 45 days instead of 300, therefore much less expensive. There's also a much lesser chance of being politically immolated by personal revelations in such a short campaign. That's thought to be the reason that Arnold Schwarzenegger declined to run in the 2002 California governor's race, but chose to go for it in the much shorter recall campaign the following year, which had the added luxury of not having a Republican primary.

In a short campaign, the person with the highest name recognition wins, which in this case means John Tory, Olivia Chow, George Smitherman or Doug Ford, depending on whether any or all of them run. I doubt Tory would, since a stunt like that would diminish him and he knows it.

Even the "losers" win for having run, since in doing so, they automatically raise their name recognition and establish a campaign team and donor base for the big show a year later. Barring a complete Adam Giambrone- style disaster, it's the smartest money a politician could spend.

Ford's allies on Council (who, with the exception of Doug, have made quite the show of distancing themselves from him) are saying exactly the same thing I am: Unless the left decides to usurp the results of the last election in their entirety, there should be no by-election.

Not only is that a principled, fundamentally conservative position, it shows real "respect for the taxpayer." Of the conservatives on Council, only the Ford brothers want a publicly funded, prohibitively expensive freakshow of an election that accomplishes absolutely nothing.

If they get their way, fine. Let that be the legacy of our freakshow mayor and his even more half-witted brother. Through their unbelievable arrogance, as reflected through their own actions, the people who won promising a subway system that we can't afford forced an unnecessary election that we can't afford and moreover accomplishes nothing.

In what should be the most disgraceful moment of their lives, the Ford family is still insisting on clown time. Enough!

Doug Holyday should be named acting mayor. Period.

I will oppose in the most forceful way possible any councillor that agitates for such a foolish and godawfuly expensive election, regardless of whatever other qualities they bring to the table. I've voted for my (conservative) councillor throughout his entire career, but I will let him know that I will never vote for him again if he supports a by-election while a Holyday caretaker administration is still on the table.

I will have sent him an e-mail stating that before this is scheduled to post. It will be my first letter to an elected politician.


Picture courtesy of a very special friend.

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