Remember how through September you couldn't avoid hearing about "skewed polls" that were part of a direct conspiracy to suppress Mitt Romney's vote? Whether you tuned in Fox News or read practically any blog, you heard about it 24-7. Not only was it wildly annoying, it was impossibly stupid.
Then Romney won the first debate (in as much as you can "win" one of those silly spectacles,) and viola, we're now in the third consecutive week of not hearing Republican whining. Instead, those assholes are doing victory laps because their guy is seen to be winning in the national polls. They're still wrong, but it beats the constant pissing and moaning like liberals.
As you'll see, I'm incredibly consistent. I said in public that the national polls mean shit in a presidential race when Obama was ahead and I'm still saying they mean shit. Because the presidency is decided in the Electoral College, the state polls are the only ones that matter. And the state polls aren't being overly kind to Mitt Romney, especially in Ohio.
The president has had a pretty consistent lead in Ohio's "poll of polls" and without the Buckeye State, Romney's path to 270 is incredibly difficult, whereas Obama's isn't. Without Ohio, Romney has to come from behind in a number of different states where he hasn't maintained leads or has been stubbornly tied throughout his national surge. The way I see it, Obama is still the heavy favourite to win. As a matter of fact, I'll go out on a long limb and predict that the president is reelected with roughly 300 electoral votes. It could be as low as 280, but it could be as high as 320.
There's been a lot of talk over the last week of Obama winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. I think that's unlikely to point of not seriously addressing because that only happens about once a century and has never happened to an incumbent president.
That's not to say that it wouldn't be hilarious. After listening to Republicans lecture everyone about the primacy of the Electoral College, I'd really like to see them marching in the streets like Al Sharpton. That would make me smile.
Of course, it doesn't really matter who wins because America is fucked either way. Even if Obama had a serious budget plan (which he doesn't,) he isn't going to have a Congress willing to pass it. And the Romney-Ryan plans are nothing short of a fantasy. There's no way that it'll accomplish what it's suppose to even if it was enacted, and there's no hope that it'll ever be enacted.
An Obama second term will look a lot like the last two years have, with nothing getting done until the United States finally defaults on its debt and the universe implodes. A Romney Administration, on the other hand, will be the funniest thing imaginable, at least until the United States finally defaults on its debt and the universe implodes.
Willard Mitt Romney hasn't exactly been a profile in courage through his life, given as he is to saying whatever whoever's in front of him wants to hear. That means that his chances of standing up to the vicious shitheads in the House Tea Party caucus and introducing a sane plan that could pass a Democratic Senate are virtually zero.
The plan that he's touting - major tax reform - isn't going to pass either house of Congress. The cuntish and evil lobbyists that control both parties aren't going to allow the elimination of high end tax loopholes which, by themselves, don't come close to paying for an across-the-board rate reduction; and nobody's going to vote for the four big middle class deductions that actually would.
If there's one universal rule about politicians, it's that they'll always vote for cotton candy for everybody. That being the case, I can see Romney peeling away the three or four Senate Democrats necessary to reverse the Byrd Rule and pass the enormous tax cuts through reconciliation, but not the deduction repeal that pays for the mess.
When Romney reinvented himself as "Moderate Mitt: King of the Reasonable Cats" on October 3rd, he specifically said several times that he "would not pass a tax cut that adds to the deficit." But like everything else about the Romney campaign, this is an example of almost majestic lying cocksuckery.
You see, Republicans generally and the Tea Party specifically don't believe that tax cuts ever "add to the deficit, despite decades of mathematical evidence to the contrary. Even though it's never actually happened before, they think that tax cuts will stimulate enough growth to not only pay for themselves, but the trillions in new spending that they'll also pass.
Not only has Romney promised $2 trillion in new military spending that no one's actually asking for, it's important that the Tea Partiers are actually becoming politicians. It's easy for them to take a stand on spending when the opposition controls the White House and their proposed cuts have no realistic chance of passing. But when they have a pliable puppet like Romney as president (and Grover Norquist has said in public that the GOP only needs a "rubber stamp" in the Oval Office,) it's more likely than not that they'll be exactly the same spending machine that Bush's Republican Congress was.
One of the iron laws of politics is that voters only like fiscal discipline in theory. That is to say when someone else's spending gets cut. So, yeah, the poor will probably get gutted but the big-ticket middle class entitlements will either stay as they are or actually expand, just as they did under Bush. If you think that the proposed Medicare and Social Security plans are going to pass, you're kidding yourself, especially when they're put in legislative language and the real transition costs are laid out in black and white.
The same goes for promise to "repeal and replace" Obamacare. If you think that's going to happen, you're either an idiot, you haven't been paying attention, or you hope Romney's lying. Mitt has said on numerous occasions that he'll keep the parts of the Affordable Care Act that everybody likes, which happens to be most of it. He only wants to get rid of the individual mandate that pays for it.
Simply put, if you elect Romney, the Tea Party effectively ceases to exist. A President Romney would presumably like to be reelected and the fucking Teapers lacked the balls to invent themselves before President Bush was safely exiled to Dallas. There is absolutely no evidence to suggest that these idiots will stand up to a president of their own party.
Watching the self-declared "fiscal hawks" on Fox News and in the jerk-off blogosphere revert to form and justifying the deficit marathon that Romney and Tea Party House creates would be the funniest thing I've ever seen. Watching them spend between two and four years blaming an underperforming economy on Obama, as calling Obama out for doing the same to Bush is going to make me smile.
Look, I get that well over half of my American readers are going to vote for Mitt Romney and I'm not delusional enough to pretend that I'm going to change anybody's mind. But I guarantee you that what I described above - or something very close to it - is going to happen in the event of a Romney presidency.
And watching that will be worth your voting for him.
0 comments:
Post a Comment