I'm endlessly entertained by enthusiasm the Canadian "conservative" blogosphere has for Toronto councillor Rob Ford's campaign for mayor. Seriously, I haven't seen less seriousness out of people that I otherwise respect since I've started blogging.I've maintained from the beginning that Ford's economic ideas are silly enough to almost qualify as Bush economics, which has crippled conservatism in the United States. Moreover, I have a very hard time taking a "law and order" candidate that has been criminally charged four times and convicted twice seriously.
And Ford's 1999 Florida arrest isn't about, as some of my friends will tell you, about "a puff of pot." It's about a foreign national, just a year away from running from office, holding a controlled substance in a foreign country and state which is famous for their tough drug laws. Oh, and then lying about it when asked by a reporter, when almost anyone else on the planet would know that if the reporter asked the question, he must already know the answer.
Ford is either monumentally arrogant, or epically stupid. There really is no third option. And I'm not precluding the idea that he's actually both. I've studied Big Time Politics for most of my life, and I can tell you that it's almost impossible to win an election when you're monumentally arrogant and epically stupid. You might be able to squeak by if you're one or the other, but almost never both.
And I think that a poll that most of my friends are highlighting proves it. If you follow the Canadian conservative blogosphere at all, I'm, pretty sure that you've already seen part of it.
A new poll by Ipsos-Reid commissioned by NewsTalk 1010 and Global News puts Ford at 32%, more than 10% ahead of his nearest rival, former deputy premier George Smitherman, who has 21% of the vote.Wow, that sounds prety impressive, huh? If I was born with fetal alcohol syndrome, I'd be touting that poll myself. Having said that, 21% undecided is awfully high. You don't see those kind of numbers in the last two months of very many elections.
The poll was conducted over the weekend, after a week where Ford was battered by his opponents for comments he made on immigration, his previously undisclosed 1999 DUI charge and the integrity commissioner's report slamming him for violating the city's code of conduct by raising funds for his football foundation.
Behind Ford and Smitherman, Sarah Thomson is in third place with 10%.
She's followed by Deputy Mayor Joe Pantalone with 9%.
Rocco Rossi is at the bottom of the top five mayoral candidates with just 7%.
The poll indicates a huge number of Torontonians, 21%, are still undecided.
But here's the part of the poll that you're not seeing on the blogs.
But media reports indicate while Mayor David Miller isn't seeking a third term, he is polling well.
If Miller were in the race, the poll indicates he would be the frontrunner.
You can see the numbers here. And they're more than a little important to my analysis, which couldn't be more correct.
What out-of-towners need to know is that David Miller has been an unmitigated disaster of a mayor. He couldn't be more wrong about everything if he was actually born that way.
When he announced last September that he wouldn't be running for a third term, he was polling at about 19% approval, which is about three points lower than your average child molester does. After all, pedophiles have candy, video games and all manner of things that bring out the kid in everyone. More scientifically, George W. Bush's polling bottomed out at about 24%, and 16% believe that O.J didn't murder those folks on Brentwood back in 1994.
As of today, a hypothetical Miller reelection campaign beats Ford by about seven points. Seven points in any election is humiliating, but from an a guy who was polling at just 19% eleven months ago? That defies my linguistic skill to properly explain.
When the story leaked last month that John Tory was doing private polling about a possible late entry into the race, pretty much the same thing happened. But Miller? A guy who bottomed out because he couldn't convince one-in-five voters that he wasn't actually a dangerous moron?
In all honesty, I'd be horrified and amazed if Miller came out of nowhere to run again, and I would never vote for him. In no way am I endorsing a return of His Blondness, even though it would definitely derail Ford and maybe save Canadian conservatism.
A lot of my commenters and most other conservative blogs are rallying around Ford - even though they mostly admit that he'd be inconsequential - because of the Toronto's weak mayor's office - at best, and a dangerously embarrassing disaster at worst.
That begs an important question. Toronto represents a third of Ontario's ridings and nearly a tenth of Canada's. That being the case, how does Stephen Harper, Tim Hudak, or pretty much anyone form a governing majority when the governing face of Toronto conservatism is Rob Fucking Ford? How does any serious person intellectually defend that? I couldn't, and wouldn't even try to.
Ford is being categorically, bestially beaten by two guys who aren't running. I could understand him losing to one center-right candidate who has twice ruled out running, but losing by seven points to the admitted socialist who is most commonly known as "The Problem?"
There's only one way to explain that; Rob's support is a mile wide and an inch deep ... if that.
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